AVIAN INFLUENZA, OTHERWISE KNOWN AS BIRD FLU, COULD POSSIBLY KILL UP TO 500 MILLION PEOPLE EPIDEMIOLOGIST PRECIT.
Bird Flu
“Alas, a flu pandemic is not a fate we can avoid…Even if humanity miraculously dodged H5N1, we would soon be under threat from other virulent subtypes.”
-Mike Davis-
Bird flu is another problem we must immediately recognize and prepare for. It has emerged as yet another serious and probably unavoidable threat to Humanity, which will affect many of us within our lifetimes.
Avian influenza, most commonly referred to simply as “bird flu,” is a contagious disease that originates in bird populations and can subsequently be spread to mammalian species, including humans. The most prominent strain of the virus, “Influenza A”, has 9 N and 16 H genetic subtypes or possibilities. Most of the strains of flu that are common among humans have been around for quite a while and we have built resistances against these strains. Though these strains are common, they are not highly pathogenic or virulent. However, strains that people have not been exposed to and thus have not built up resistance to, such as the H5 and H7 genetic subtypes, are much more threatening. These can be highly virulent, infect large percentages of people and have high mortality rates. This was the case in the 1918 Spanish Flu after WWI, which caused the death of approximately 50 to 100 million people.
Many researchers believe a new highly virulent strain of the flu is about to strike. The H5N1 strain has shown the possibility of becoming a worldwide global pandemic and has the potential to infect 25-50 percent of the global population, killing upwards of 500 million people.(1) H5N1 is endemic in both domestic and wild bird populations across Asia, and has recently made its way into Europe and is expected to be shortly traveling into Africa as migratory bird populations fly south from Siberia to over-winter in sub-Saharan locations.(2) In a medical paper by general physician Dr. Gratton Woodson, he states that,
In the event of a major pandemic with a case fatality rate that exceeds 5%, it is my opinion that there will be a temporary breakdown in food delivery, the electric and water utility services, and possibly even public order in major urban areas worldwide. This prediction is based on several factors. First is the marked expansion in the human population since the last major pandemic. In 1918, our population was 1.6 billion and today it is 6.6 billion. Only 17% of the world’s inhabitants lived in urban environments in 1918 and at the time there were only 15 cities with more than one million inhabitants. Today slightly less than half of humanity lives in urban settings that occupy only 3% of the earth’s surface area and there are over 400 cities with a population of over one million.
High population density is a well-known and understood factor favoring epidemics, including influenza. The world has never faced a major pandemic with its population so large or so geographically concentrated. This factor alone makes predicting the magnitude of a major pandemic difficult. The difficulty is not predicting whether these population factors will worsen or lessen the severity of the pandemic. There is no question that it will worsen it, but by how much, we do not know.
Cities are dependent on outside sources for critical supplies including food, power, and water. The provision of these essential goods and services requires the highly coordinated efforts of a large number of people. During a major pandemic, these activities are likely to be interrupted by widespread illness and death. The interdependent nature of modern society increases the risk that a systematic failure could occur due to a domino effect precipitated by the failures of one or two key institutions or resources. In other words, a failure of one critical system leads to the failure of another and so on until the entire system collapses.
Taken together, these factors are likely to result in the temporary disruption in the basic supplies and services we all now take for granted. The resulting chaos would likely be accompanied by a period of temporary anarchy, especially within large urban centers.”
Thus we see that, if it becomes pandemic, avian influenza could drastically affect modern industrial civilization in many of the ways that peak oil would—most importantly a shutdown of the global economy.
From <http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Geographic.Geographic>
THE SPANISH FLU
Following WWI, the so-called ‘Spanish flu’ infected close to one third of the world population, killing approximately 2 percent of those infected. Original mortality rates of 20 million were calculated, but researchers have drastically revised this number upwards to 50-100 million, largely as a result of the uncounted millions of deaths in the third world. In contrast, H5N1 has killed over 50 percent of 109 whose infection with the virus have thus far been documented. This leads many researchers to predict that H5N1 could be much more virulent than the influenza of 1918. In 2003, a ‘super-strain’ of H5N1 developed that has been dubbed “Z+”, which further supports the evidence that H5N1 has the potential of killing hundreds of millions. There remains, however, the possibility that, as the virus mutates through the population, it will take a more benign form, thus leading to a reduced mortality rate. There also remains the chance that H5N1 won’t ever become a human epidemic. Researchers simply don’t know enough about the virus to come to any definitive conclusions, yet unpredictability does not justify being unprepared.
There are currently four antiviral drugs that are used to treat and prevent influenza (amantadine, rimantadine, zanamivir, and osteltamivir). Only two of these antivirals: zanamivir [Relenza] and osteltamivir [Tamiflu]), work on the H5N1 strain because of mutations in its protein complex. These antiviral medications are called ‘nueraminidase inhibitors’ because they target and block the nueraminidase gene. Only Tamiflu, however, is being considered for widespread use because it is available in a pill form and is easy to administer, as opposed to Relenza, which is a nasal spray, difficult to administer and in short supply.
Mortality rates from 1900 to 2000. Note the spike in mortalities
in 1918 due to the “Spanish Flu” pandemic.
Although many countries are currently stockpiling large quantities of Tamiflu in the case of an outbreak, there remain serious questions of efficacy of the drug as well as questions of distribution and availability. In recent tests, Tamiflu has demonstrated some effectiveness against certain H5N1 strains, but has shown to be rather weak against other strains. Some researchers see this as a sign that H5N1 will be able to quickly develop immunity to Tamiflu.
Currently, only a single company, Roche, in a single factory in Switzerland, is producing Tamiflu. Under pressure from the massive increase in demand of the drug, Roche has promised to increase production from 1.5 million courses (30 pills per course) to 4 million courses per year. Roche recently cut shipment of Tamiflu to the United States due to concerns that corporations and individuals were stockpiling the drug in fear of H5N1 while many populations around the world wouldn’t have enough of the drug to treat the typical seasonal outbreaks.(3) Some countries, such as Canada and Great Britain have stockpiled enough Tamiflu to treat over 20 percent of their population, yet the United States has stockpiled less than 1 percent of the Tamiflu needed to treat its citizens.
Flight paths of migratory birds, which are believed to be the major carrier and spreader of avian influenza H5N1. Diagram from MSN’s October 2005 article “Bird Flu—The Coming Pandemic” by Ross Coulthart available online at <http://sunday.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/
cover_stories/article_1875.asp>.
Vaccine prototypes are being developed through a process called ‘reverse genetics’. Stockpiling effective vaccines would play an enormous role in stopping or reducing a global epidemic. However, for several reasons, we cannot be sure that such a vaccine will be created in time to prevent bird flu. First, it is uncertain at this time whether the vaccines currently being developed will be effective against emergent strains. Second, there is little market incentive to create these vaccines because they have little economic appeal to pharmaceutical companies due to the risk of manufacturing and predicting necessary quantities, the cost of patenting rights, and liability concerns. Third, developing the actual vaccine may take months after the initial breakout occurs.
Questions arise over the availability and distribution of Tamiflu and vaccines. Who will be given priority for treatment? Will we treat those with compromised immune systems, the young, and the elderly? Will we first administer it to the emergency medical services? Or will the military and police be the first, as the Pentagon and Bush administration have suggested? One thing seems certain, ordinary citizens will probably have very little say in the matter once an epidemic breaks out.
Mike Davis, author of the newly published book, The Monster at our Door: The Global Threat of Avian Flu, writes a compelling conclusion that “Alas, a flu pandemic is a fate that we cannot avoid...
"Access to lifeline medicines, including vaccines, antibiotics, and antivirals, should be a human right, universally available at no cost. If markets can’t provide incentives to cheaply produce such drugs, then governments and non-profits should take responsibility for their manufacture and distribution. The survival of the poor must at all times be accounted a higher priority than the profits of Big Pharma. Likewise, the creation of a truly global public-health infrastructure has become a project of literally life-and-death urgency for the rich countries as well as the poor....
"As the hour hand on the pandemic clock ominously approaches midnight, I recall those 1950’s sci-fi thrillers of my childhood in which an alien menace or atomic monster threatened Humanity. Scientists try to sound the alarm, but politicians ignore the danger. Ultimately, however, the world wakes up to the peril and unites to defeat the invader. Human species survival overrides the antagonisms of the Cold War and competitive nationalism."
Davis concludes by asking a rhetorical question. “Now, with a real Monster at our door—as terrible as any in science fiction—will we wake up in time?” (4)
However, we cannot and should not rely upon the government, politicians, pharmaceutical corporations, elites, and international organizations. They seem, at this point in time, to be incapable of responsibly dealing with the threat of a H5N1 pandemic. This is not to say that they aren’t doing anything to alleviate the situation, or that they cannot play a crucial role in dealing with the possibility of a global epidemic. Nonetheless, we should and must prepare our families, our communities, and ourselves independently of these institutions, because we cannot depend on them to ‘save’ us. Indeed, in the wake of Katrina we have seen that—though the government and aid organizations can do much to help people—one should not rely on such organizations for personal safety and safety of one’s family and community. Therefore, we should expect the solutions to come from small, well-organized communities rather than large bureaucracies. But how will we do this?
<http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Science.DemographicsH5N1>
Like dealing with the threat of peak oil, community is again the most practical level at which we can effectively prepare. This is true for at least two reasons: (1) Governments, politicians, corporations, etc. have thus far proven ineffective at generating a rational response to the threats, and (2) peak oil may likely disturb government and international efforts of dealing with a bird flu pandemic if it does indeed occur. Having both bird flu and peak oil hit us at the same time or fairly closely could lead to disastrous consequences. We would in effect be, in one commentators words, tarred and feathered.
“Disease will certainly play a larger role in the Long Emergency than many can now imagine. An epidemic could paralyze social and economic systems, interrupt global trade, and bring down governments.”
-James Howard Kunstler-
Unfortunately, bird flu is not the only pandemic that threatens Humanity. Other diseases and viruses are likely to have a negative affect on human populations. HIV/AIDS is another emerging crisis of great proportions, not to mention highly treatable diseases such as malaria, typhoid fever, and diarrhea that still claim millions of lives every year in poorer areas of the world, particularly Africa.
All these pandemics are best seen from an ecological or systems perspective. Essentially, the problem is that we have allowed our populations to grow to such unwieldy proportions that the natural systems of the Earth are starting to engage negative feedback mechanisms in order to control and reduce the population of human beings. In a rather tragic way, the threat of diseases and viruses that could wipe out massive amounts of the population may be a necessary and ultimately beneficial event, in spite of the amount of human suffering and tragedy involved. The harsh reality is that we humans have become far too numerous on the planet—we are like a virus or a cancer that is infecting the Earth, and now the Earth, it seems, wants to get rid of this human viral infection.
While this information can be overwhelming and even daunting, don't be discouraged! There is much you and your community can do to prepare for this possibly very serious crisis. To learn more about opportunities to act now, visit our SOLUTIONS and OPOA ACTION! pages.
Also, find out how Bird Flu Preparation can help protect your family and community, and how Earth Ethics can begin to reduce population and consumption.
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